Similar past situations (analog forecast)
How the "Similar past situations" card finds the closest matches in a coin's history and turns them into odds, a typical move and a stop that survives the usual wobble.
The idea
Before a move, price usually wobbles against it. A stop placed inside that wobble gets hit by noise, not by a wrong idea. The analog forecast measures the wobble from history: it finds the moments in this coin's past that looked most like right now (price shape, volume and indicator state) and shows what happened after them.
Where it is
On the pair page, below the prediction block: the card Similar past situations (analog forecast). On a coin whose history is still being prepared it says the index is not built yet.
Reading the card
The header shows how many past situations were used. Choose the horizon with 1h, 4h or 24h.
| Box | Meaning |
|---|---|
| bias badge | The direction the matches lean, or neutral when up and down are too close to call. |
| Odds | Share of the matches that ended clearly up or clearly down within the horizon. |
| Typical move | The middle outcome after the matches, with the usual range around it. |
| Reference | The price and volatility the levels below are built from. |
Then one panel per side (long and short):
- won n % of analogs: how often the matches ended in that side's favour;
- Wobble: how far most winners went against the trade before they paid;
- Stop beyond: a stop placed just beyond that wobble;
- Target: the typical favourable move, and a stretch target after the slash.
The Closest matches table lists the nearest past moments with their similarity and what price did 1 h, 4 h and 24 h later.
How to use it
- As a sanity check on a call: if a model says long but the analog bias is short with a wide spread of outcomes, size down or wait. Disagreement between methods is information.
- As a stop distance: a stop inside the wobble of similar past situations is likely to be hit by noise. My Positions uses the same idea for its stop advice.
Limits
- Analog odds are not a signal on their own. They describe what followed similar-looking moments, with no proof that the resemblance matters.
- A coin with little history (a new listing) has few matches and wide ranges.
- The card refreshes every few minutes; the index is rebuilt as new history comes in.
Past outcomes do not guarantee future ones. Read the risk notice.