The Performance page
Pattern backtest reports with the honest walk-forward figures, the Calibration table and the live signal tracker - what each section shows and how to read it.
What the page is for
The Performance page (sidebar) is where the pattern engine shows its record: backtest reports, the calibration of its confidence numbers and the outcome of real, live signals. Use it to decide how much weight a pattern signal deserves on a coin.
For the Pair Model and the Flow Model, the live record is on the Signals page (filter by type and look at the summary line) and on your demo account on the Trading page; see Demo trading.
Backtests
The Backtest section replays confirmed patterns from the stored history through the same logic that produces live pattern signals, with fees, slippage and leverage modelled. The settings are the coins, timeframes, date range, confidence threshold, leverage, risk per trade and starting equity.
Running a backtest uses engine resources shared by everyone, so it is an operator action; the page says so. A finished report opens below the section.
Reading a report
The tiles give trades, win rate, return, max DD (largest peak-to-trough fall), profit factor (gross profit / gross loss), expectancy (average result per trade), avg win / loss and start-to-end equity.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Walk-forward (honest) | The same test where every choice is made using only the past, as you could have done at the time. These are the numbers to believe. |
| Equity curve | Equity after each closed trade, with the walk-forward curve dashed. |
| Breakdown | Results by pattern, timeframe, coin or direction. |
| Threshold sweep | The same trades at different confidence thresholds. |
| Trades | Every simulated trade with prices, result, bars held and exit reason. |
Expect the walk-forward block to be worse than the headline tiles. If the walk-forward result is negative while the headline is positive, the edge on that coin is not robust.
Calibration
Checks whether a call with a given confidence wins as often as it says. See Confidence, the confidence bar and calibration.
Live signal tracker
The bottom section summarises real pattern signals that resolved (target hit, stopped or expired): count, win rate, average and total unleveraged result, and the crash-alert hit rate per level with the typical lead time, broken down by pattern, timeframe and coin.
Compare the live tracker with the backtest. A live win rate far below the backtest after 30 or more signals means the market changed; that calls for caution, not for a lower threshold.
Backtest results are hypothetical and past results do not guarantee future ones. Read the risk notice.