Confidence, the confidence bar and calibration — Knowledge base

What confidence means

Every signal carries a confidence percentage: the model's estimate of the chance that the trade reaches its target before its stop. It is shown on the Signals page (conf column), in the signal panel and on the pair page. Higher means the model found stronger evidence; it never means certainty.

Your own confidence bar (per trading account)

On the Trading page each account (the demo included) has a from … % conf field in its settings row. Only signals at or above that number are traded (Auto) or proposed to you (Ask me) on that account.

Open Trading, pick the account and open its settings.
Type a number in from … % conf and press Enter (or click away). A toast confirms Confidence bar saved.
The value is yours: nothing overwrites it.

Raising the bar gives fewer, stronger calls; lowering it gives more calls with a lower average quality. Demo accounts start lower than real-money accounts so they collect results faster.

The platform's signal threshold

Independently of your account bar, the platform only publishes pattern signals above a minimum confidence. That threshold (and any per-coin override) is set by the operator; below it a forming or confirmed pattern stays in the Watching list instead of becoming a signal.

Calibration: does 70 % mean 70 %?

Performance > Calibration checks the confidence numbers against reality. Live calls are grouped by the confidence they had, and once each call has resolved the table shows per group how many there were, how many were right and wrong, and the realised win rate.

Green: the group delivered at least what it promised.
Amber: better than a coin-flip but below the promise.
Red: below 50 %.

Pick the coin with the selector in the section header. No resolved live calls yet means the coin has not been running long enough. The operator can switch on auto-adjust per coin, which nudges the platform threshold up when calls disappoint and down a little when they over-deliver; the table shows whether it is on.

Choosing your bar

Do not tune it on a handful of trades. Fewer than about 30 resolved calls says little.
If the calibration groups around your bar are amber or red, raise the bar or trade smaller.
Compare your demo account's results at different bars before changing a real-money account.

Confidence and win rates are statistics from past data, not guarantees. Read the risk notice.